UP 2022 analysis: the gap between vote share and seats
प्रकाशित
The 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly election showed a wide gap between vote share and seats. The BJP won 255 seats, about 63.28 percent of the House, on 41.29 percent of the vote. The Samajwadi Party won 111 seats, about 27.54 percent, on 32.06 percent. The BSP won 1 seat on 12.88 percent.
The gap is not a sign of irregularity. It is the nature of first past the post. On each seat the candidate with the most votes wins, even with less than 50 percent.
| Party | Vote % | Seats | Share of seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| BJP | 41.29% | 255 | 63.28% |
| Samajwadi Party | 32.06% | 111 | 27.54% |
| BSP | 12.88% | 1 | 0.25% |
| RLD | 2.85% | 8 | 1.99% |
| Congress | 2.33% | 2 | 0.5% |
| Apna Dal (Soneylal) | 1.62% | 12 | 2.98% |
| Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party | 1.36% | 6 | 1.49% |
| NISHAD Party | 0.91% | 6 | 1.49% |
Table: UP Election News. Data: Election Commission of India, 2022. Seat share on a base of 403.
The BSP example
The BSP case shows the system most clearly. It contested all 403 seats and polled 1,18,73,137 votes, yet won only Rasara. Its vote was spread across the state, but on most seats it did not reach first place. It forfeited deposits on 287 seats.
Apna Dal (S), by contrast, contested only 17 seats and won 12 on a statewide share of 1.62 percent. In the seats it contested its share was 40.76 percent. A concentrated vote can win more seats than a spread-out vote.
How many seats were won without a majority of votes
In 2022, 55 seats were won with less than 40 percent of the vote. On 8 seats the winner had under 35 percent. On those seats the split of the opposing vote mattered.
Fifteen seats were decided by fewer than 1,000 votes and 51 by 50,000 or more. That spread of margins shows why a seat result cannot be read only from a statewide vote share.
Key points
- The 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly election showed a wide gap between vote share and seats.
- The BSP case shows the system most clearly.
- In 2022, 55 seats were won with less than 40 percent of the vote.
The 2024 Lok Sabha context
In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, Uttar Pradesh’s 80 seats were won as follows: Samajwadi Party 37, BJP 33, Congress 6, RLD 2, Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) 1 and Apna Dal (S) 1. Lok Sabha and assembly elections turn on different issues and alliances, so the two results should not be added together to reach a conclusion.
The structure of the House
The Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly has 403 seats. Of these, 84 are reserved for Scheduled Castes and 2 for Scheduled Tribes. The majority mark is 202. The state sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha and 31 to the Rajya Sabha. The legislative council is a separate House whose members come through different electorates and nomination.
Official 2022 figures for context
For context, the 2022 assembly election had 15,12,46,168 electors and 9,21,62,897 votes polled, with statewide turnout of 60.94 percent. The BJP won 255 seats on 41.29 percent and the Samajwadi Party 111 seats on 32.06 percent. Apna Dal (S) won 12, the RLD 8, the SBSP and NISHAD Party 6 each, Congress and the Jansatta Dal Loktantrik 2 each, and the BSP 1.
Also read:
- Budaun district assembly results 2022
- Mathura district assembly results 2022
- Ghazipur district assembly results 2022
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