Itwa, in Siddharthnagar district, produced one of the tightest results of the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly election. Mata Prasad Pandey of the Samajwadi Party defeated Dr. Satish Chandra Dwivedi of the BJP by just 1,662 votes. Ranked by margin, it was number 26 among the closest of all 403 seats. This analysis uses Election Commission of India figures to explain how the contest was decided and how it compares with 2017.
The 2022 result in Itwa
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mata Prasad Pandey | Samajwadi Party | 64,253 | 38.54% |
| 2 | Dr. Satish Chandra Dwivedi | BJP | 62,591 | 37.55% |
| 3 | Hari Shankar Singh | BSP | 24,944 | 14.96% |
| 4 | ? | Congress | 10,326 | 6.19% |
| – | NOTA | – | 1,135 | – |
Table: UP Election News. Data: Election Commission of India.
Itwa had 3,36,392 registered electors in 2022 and 1,66,700 votes were polled, a turnout of about 49.56%. A total of 9 candidates contested. The winning margin of 1,662 votes works out to about 1.00% of all votes polled.
Why the margin was so thin
The third placed BSP candidate Hari Shankar Singh polled 24,944 votes, more than the winning margin. In a contest this close, the votes taken by the third candidate could have changed the outcome had even a small share gone the other way. The top two candidates together took 76.09% of the votes, which shows that other candidates still drew a meaningful share.
How 2017 compares
In 2017 the seat was won by Dr. Satish Chandra Dwivedi of the BJP, who defeated Arshad Khursheed of the BSP by 10,208 votes. The seat therefore changed hands in 2022, moving from the BJP to the SP. Turnout was 50.04% in 2017 against 49.56% in 2022.
| Year | Winner | Party | Runner up party | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Dr. Satish Chandra Dwivedi | BJP | BSP | 10,208 |
| 2022 | Mata Prasad Pandey | SP | BJP | 1,662 |
The district context
Itwa is one of 5 assembly seats in Siddharthnagar district. In 2022 the district’s seats were shared as follows: BJP 2, SP 2, Apna Dal (S) 1. In 2017 the tally was BJP 4, Apna Dal (S) 1. The narrow result in Itwa therefore sits within a district where more than one party won seats.
What it means for 2027
Seats decided by a few thousand votes or less are marginal seats, and parties usually treat them as priority constituencies. A small change in turnout, alliance arrangements or candidate choice can tip such a seat. With the next assembly election due by early 2027, Itwa is likely to be watched closely by both the ruling alliance and the opposition. Any assessment of 2027, however, will depend on factors that the 2022 numbers alone cannot capture.
How the UP assembly is elected
Uttar Pradesh has 403 assembly constituencies, of which 84 are reserved for Scheduled Castes and 2 for Scheduled Tribes. Their boundaries were fixed by the Delimitation Order of 2008, and the 2012, 2017 and 2022 elections were all held on these same boundaries, so results from these years can be compared seat by seat. Members are elected under the first past the post system, which means the candidate with the most valid votes wins even without a majority of votes. The 18th Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly first met in 2022, so the next assembly election is due by early 2027.
All numbers in this article are taken from the official results published by the Election Commission of India. Vote shares are calculated on total valid votes, including NOTA where stated.
Also read:
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- यूपी चुनाव 2017 के नतीजे: भाजपा को 312 सीटें, बसपा ने सपा से ज्यादा वोट पाकर भी जीतीं सिर्फ 19
Source: Election Commission of India, statistical reports of the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly general elections 2017 and 2022. Original data: Election Commission of India statistical reports.
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