Moradabad Nagar, in Moradabad district, produced one of the tightest results of the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly election. Ritesh Kumar Gupta of the BJP defeated Mohd Yusuf Ansari of the Samajwadi Party by just 782 votes. Ranked by margin, it was number 14 among the closest of all 403 seats. This analysis uses Election Commission of India figures to explain how the contest was decided and how it compares with 2017.
The 2022 result in Moradabad Nagar
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ritesh Kumar Gupta | BJP | 1,48,384 | 46.12% |
| 2 | Mohd Yusuf Ansari | Samajwadi Party | 1,47,602 | 45.88% |
| 3 | Irshad Hussain | BSP | 14,013 | 4.36% |
| 4 | Rizwan Qureshi | Congress | 5,351 | 1.66% |
| – | NOTA | – | 1,400 | – |
Table: UP Election News. Data: Election Commission of India.
Moradabad Nagar had 5,29,243 registered electors in 2022 and 3,21,704 votes were polled, a turnout of about 60.79%. A total of 10 candidates contested. The winning margin of 782 votes works out to about 0.24% of all votes polled.
Why the margin was so thin
The third placed BSP candidate Irshad Hussain polled 14,013 votes, more than the winning margin. In a contest this close, the votes taken by the third candidate could have changed the outcome had even a small share gone the other way. NOTA received 1,400 votes, more than the winning margin itself. The top two candidates together took 92.00% of the votes, which shows a near straight fight.
How 2017 compares
In 2017 the seat was won by Ritesh Kumar Gupta of the BJP, who defeated Mohammad Yusuf Ansari of the Samajwadi Party by 3,193 votes. The same party therefore retained the seat in 2022, but with a much narrower cushion. Turnout was 58.80% in 2017 against 60.79% in 2022.
| Year | Winner | Party | Runner up party | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Ritesh Kumar Gupta | BJP | SP | 3,193 |
| 2022 | Ritesh Kumar Gupta | BJP | SP | 782 |
The district context
Moradabad Nagar is one of 6 assembly seats in Moradabad district. In 2022 the district’s seats were shared as follows: SP 5, BJP 1. In 2017 the tally was SP 4, BJP 2. The narrow result in Moradabad Nagar therefore sits within a district where more than one party won seats.
What it means for 2027
Seats decided by a few thousand votes or less are marginal seats, and parties usually treat them as priority constituencies. A small change in turnout, alliance arrangements or candidate choice can tip such a seat. With the next assembly election due by early 2027, Moradabad Nagar is likely to be watched closely by both the ruling alliance and the opposition. Any assessment of 2027, however, will depend on factors that the 2022 numbers alone cannot capture.
How the UP assembly is elected
Uttar Pradesh has 403 assembly constituencies, of which 84 are reserved for Scheduled Castes and 2 for Scheduled Tribes. Their boundaries were fixed by the Delimitation Order of 2008, and the 2012, 2017 and 2022 elections were all held on these same boundaries, so results from these years can be compared seat by seat. Members are elected under the first past the post system, which means the candidate with the most valid votes wins even without a majority of votes. The 18th Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly first met in 2022, so the next assembly election is due by early 2027.
All numbers in this article are taken from the official results published by the Election Commission of India. Vote shares are calculated on total valid votes, including NOTA where stated.
Also read:
- Domariyaganj Seat 2022: Decided by 771 Votes, an Analysis
- मुरादाबाद नगर विधानसभा सीट 2027: भाजपा की लगातार दो जीत, 2022 में 782 वोट से फैसला
- यूपी चुनाव 2022 के नतीजे: NDA को 273, सपा गठबंधन को 125 सीटें; आंकड़ों में पूरी तस्वीर
Source: Election Commission of India, statistical reports of the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly general elections 2017 and 2022. Original data: Election Commission of India statistical reports.
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