Salon Seat 2022: Decided by 2,111 Votes, an Analysis

Salon (reserved for SC), in Raebareli district, produced one of the tightest results of the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly election. Ashok Kumar of the BJP defeated Jagdish Prasad of the Samajwadi Party by just 2,111 votes. Ranked by margin, it was number 30 among the closest of all 403 seats. This analysis uses Election Commission of India figures to explain how the contest was decided and how it compares with 2017.

The 2022 result in Salon

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
1	Ashok Kumar	BJP	87,715	43.79%
2	Jagdish Prasad	Samajwadi Party	85,604	42.73%
3	Arjun Kumar	Congress	11,439	5.71%
4	Svati Singh	BSP	9,335	4.66%
–	NOTA	–	2,042	–

Table: UP Election News. Data: Election Commission of India.

Salon had 3,49,294 registered electors in 2022 and 2,00,323 votes were polled, a turnout of about 57.35%. A total of 9 candidates contested. The winning margin of 2,111 votes works out to about 1.05% of all votes polled.

Why the margin was so thin

The third placed Congress candidate Arjun Kumar polled 11,439 votes, more than the winning margin. In a contest this close, the votes taken by the third candidate could have changed the outcome had even a small share gone the other way. The top two candidates together took 86.52% of the votes, which shows a near straight fight.

How 2017 compares

In 2017 the seat was won by Dal Bahadur of the BJP, who defeated Suresh Chaudhary of the Congress by 16,055 votes. The same party therefore retained the seat in 2022, but with a much narrower cushion. Turnout was 56.76% in 2017 against 57.35% in 2022.

Year	Winner	Party	Runner up party	Margin
2017	Dal Bahadur	BJP	Congress	16,055
2022	Ashok Kumar	BJP	SP	2,111

The district context

Salon is one of 6 assembly seats in Raebareli district. In 2022 the district’s seats were shared as follows: SP 4, BJP 2. In 2017 the tally was BJP 3, Congress 2, SP 1. The narrow result in Salon therefore sits within a district where more than one party won seats.

What it means for 2027

Seats decided by a few thousand votes or less are marginal seats, and parties usually treat them as priority constituencies. A small change in turnout, alliance arrangements or candidate choice can tip such a seat. With the next assembly election due by early 2027, Salon is likely to be watched closely by both the ruling alliance and the opposition. Any assessment of 2027, however, will depend on factors that the 2022 numbers alone cannot capture.

How the UP assembly is elected

Uttar Pradesh has 403 assembly constituencies, of which 84 are reserved for Scheduled Castes and 2 for Scheduled Tribes. Their boundaries were fixed by the Delimitation Order of 2008, and the 2012, 2017 and 2022 elections were all held on these same boundaries, so results from these years can be compared seat by seat. Members are elected under the first past the post system, which means the candidate with the most valid votes wins even without a majority of votes. The 18th Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly first met in 2022, so the next assembly election is due by early 2027.

All numbers in this article are taken from the official results published by the Election Commission of India. Vote shares are calculated on total valid votes, including NOTA where stated.

Also read:

• Bisauli Seat 2022: Decided by 1,834 Votes, an Analysis
• सलोन विधानसभा सीट 2027: भाजपा की लगातार दो जीत, 2022 में 2,111 वोट से फैसला
• यूपी चुनाव 2022 के नतीजे: NDA को 273, सपा गठबंधन को 125 सीटें; आंकड़ों में पूरी तस्वीर

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