Chandpur Seat 2022: Decided by 234 Votes, an Analysis

Chandpur, in Bijnor district, produced one of the tightest results of the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly election. Swami Omvesh of the Samajwadi Party defeated Kamlesh Saini of the BJP by just 234 votes. Ranked by margin, it was number 3 among the closest of all 403 seats. This analysis uses Election Commission of India figures to explain how the contest was decided and how it compares with 2017.

The 2022 result in Chandpur

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
1	Swami Omvesh	Samajwadi Party	90,522	40.34%
2	Kamlesh Saini	BJP	90,288	40.24%
3	Shakeel Ahmad	BSP	37,359	16.65%
4	Yasir Arafat	AIMIM	1,586	0.71%
–	NOTA	–	854	–

Table: UP Election News. Data: Election Commission of India.

Chandpur had 3,25,858 registered electors in 2022 and 2,24,374 votes were polled, a turnout of about 68.86%. A total of 10 candidates contested. The winning margin of 234 votes works out to about 0.10% of all votes polled.

Why the margin was so thin

The third placed BSP candidate Shakeel Ahmad polled 37,359 votes, more than the winning margin. In a contest this close, the votes taken by the third candidate could have changed the outcome had even a small share gone the other way. NOTA received 854 votes, more than the winning margin itself. The top two candidates together took 80.58% of the votes, which shows that other candidates still drew a meaningful share.

How 2017 compares

In 2017 the seat was won by Kamlesh Saini of the BJP, who defeated Mohammad Iqbal of the BSP by 35,649 votes. The seat therefore changed hands in 2022, moving from the BJP to the SP. Turnout was 69.84% in 2017 against 68.86% in 2022.

Year	Winner	Party	Runner up party	Margin
2017	Kamlesh Saini	BJP	BSP	35,649
2022	Swami Omvesh	SP	BJP	234

The district context

Chandpur is one of 8 assembly seats in Bijnor district. In 2022 the district’s seats were shared as follows: SP 4, BJP 4. In 2017 the tally was BJP 6, SP 2. The narrow result in Chandpur therefore sits within a district where more than one party won seats.

What it means for 2027

Seats decided by a few thousand votes or less are marginal seats, and parties usually treat them as priority constituencies. A small change in turnout, alliance arrangements or candidate choice can tip such a seat. With the next assembly election due by early 2027, Chandpur is likely to be watched closely by both the ruling alliance and the opposition. Any assessment of 2027, however, will depend on factors that the 2022 numbers alone cannot capture.

How the UP assembly is elected

Uttar Pradesh has 403 assembly constituencies, of which 84 are reserved for Scheduled Castes and 2 for Scheduled Tribes. Their boundaries were fixed by the Delimitation Order of 2008, and the 2012, 2017 and 2022 elections were all held on these same boundaries, so results from these years can be compared seat by seat. Members are elected under the first past the post system, which means the candidate with the most valid votes wins even without a majority of votes. The 18th Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly first met in 2022, so the next assembly election is due by early 2027.

All numbers in this article are taken from the official results published by the Election Commission of India. Vote shares are calculated on total valid votes, including NOTA where stated.

Also read:

• Kursi Seat 2022: Decided by 217 Votes, an Analysis
• चांदपुर विधानसभा सीट 2027: 2017 में भाजपा, 2022 में सपा; समझिए समीकरण
• यूपी चुनाव 2022 के नतीजे: NDA को 273, सपा गठबंधन को 125 सीटें; आंकड़ों में पूरी तस्वीर

Source: Election Commission of India, statistical reports of the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly general elections 2017 and 2022. Original data: Election Commission of India statistical reports.

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