Isauli Seat 2022: Decided by 269 Votes, an Analysis

Isauli, in Sultanpur district, produced one of the tightest results of the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly election. Mohd Tahir Khan of the Samajwadi Party defeated Om Prakash Pandey of the BJP by just 269 votes. Ranked by margin, it was number 6 among the closest of all 403 seats. This analysis uses Election Commission of India figures to explain how the contest was decided and how it compares with 2017.

The 2022 result in Isauli

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
1	Mohd Tahir Khan	Samajwadi Party	69,629	34.34%
2	Om Prakash Pandey	BJP	69,360	34.21%
3	Yash Bhadra Singh	BSP	54,119	26.69%
4	Mahjahar	AIMIM	3,308	1.63%
–	NOTA	–	1,626	–

Table: UP Election News. Data: Election Commission of India.

Isauli had 3,58,604 registered electors in 2022 and 2,02,743 votes were polled, a turnout of about 56.54%. A total of 9 candidates contested. The winning margin of 269 votes works out to about 0.13% of all votes polled.

Why the margin was so thin

The third placed BSP candidate Yash Bhadra Singh polled 54,119 votes, more than the winning margin. In a contest this close, the votes taken by the third candidate could have changed the outcome had even a small share gone the other way. NOTA received 1,626 votes, more than the winning margin itself. The top two candidates together took 68.55% of the votes, which shows that other candidates still drew a meaningful share.

How 2017 compares

In 2017 the seat was won by Abrar Ahmad of the Samajwadi Party, who defeated Om Prakash Pandey "bajrangee" of the BJP by 4,241 votes. The same party therefore retained the seat in 2022, but with a much narrower cushion. Turnout was 56.35% in 2017 against 56.54% in 2022.

Year	Winner	Party	Runner up party	Margin
2017	Abrar Ahmad	SP	BJP	4,241
2022	Mohd Tahir Khan	SP	BJP	269

The district context

Isauli is one of 5 assembly seats in Sultanpur district. In 2022 the district’s seats were shared as follows: BJP 4, SP 1. In 2017 the tally was BJP 4, SP 1. The narrow result in Isauli therefore sits within a district where more than one party won seats.

What it means for 2027

Seats decided by a few thousand votes or less are marginal seats, and parties usually treat them as priority constituencies. A small change in turnout, alliance arrangements or candidate choice can tip such a seat. With the next assembly election due by early 2027, Isauli is likely to be watched closely by both the ruling alliance and the opposition. Any assessment of 2027, however, will depend on factors that the 2022 numbers alone cannot capture.

How the UP assembly is elected

Uttar Pradesh has 403 assembly constituencies, of which 84 are reserved for Scheduled Castes and 2 for Scheduled Tribes. Their boundaries were fixed by the Delimitation Order of 2008, and the 2012, 2017 and 2022 elections were all held on these same boundaries, so results from these years can be compared seat by seat. Members are elected under the first past the post system, which means the candidate with the most valid votes wins even without a majority of votes. The 18th Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly first met in 2022, so the next assembly election is due by early 2027.

All numbers in this article are taken from the official results published by the Election Commission of India. Vote shares are calculated on total valid votes, including NOTA where stated.

Also read:

• Ram Nagar Seat 2022: Decided by 261 Votes, an Analysis
• इसौली विधानसभा सीट 2027: सपा की लगातार दो जीत, 2022 में 269 वोट से फैसला
• यूपी चुनाव 2022 के नतीजे: NDA को 273, सपा गठबंधन को 125 सीटें; आंकड़ों में पूरी तस्वीर

Source: Election Commission of India, statistical reports of the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly general elections 2017 and 2022. Original data: Election Commission of India statistical reports.

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