Jasrana, in Firozabad district, produced one of the tightest results of the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly election. Sachin Yadav of the Samajwadi Party defeated Manvendra Pratap Singh of the BJP by just 836 votes. Ranked by margin, it was number 15 among the closest of all 403 seats. This analysis uses Election Commission of India figures to explain how the contest was decided and how it compares with 2017.
The 2022 result in Jasrana
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sachin Yadav | Samajwadi Party | 1,08,289 | 43.71% |
| 2 | Manvendra Pratap Singh | BJP | 1,07,453 | 43.37% |
| 3 | Surya Pratap Singh | BSP | 16,955 | 6.84% |
| 4 | ? | Independent | 7,765 | 3.13% |
| – | NOTA | – | 1,580 | – |
Table: UP Election News. Data: Election Commission of India.
Jasrana had 3,67,280 registered electors in 2022 and 2,47,762 votes were polled, a turnout of about 67.46%. A total of 10 candidates contested. The winning margin of 836 votes works out to about 0.34% of all votes polled.
Why the margin was so thin
The third placed BSP candidate Surya Pratap Singh polled 16,955 votes, more than the winning margin. In a contest this close, the votes taken by the third candidate could have changed the outcome had even a small share gone the other way. NOTA received 1,580 votes, more than the winning margin itself. The top two candidates together took 87.08% of the votes, which shows a near straight fight.
How 2017 compares
In 2017 the seat was won by Ramgopal Pappu Lodhi of the BJP, who defeated Shivpratap Singh of the Samajwadi Party by 20,328 votes. The seat therefore changed hands in 2022, moving from the BJP to the SP. Turnout was 67.67% in 2017 against 67.46% in 2022.
| Year | Winner | Party | Runner up party | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Ramgopal Pappu Lodhi | BJP | SP | 20,328 |
| 2022 | Sachin Yadav | SP | BJP | 836 |
The district context
Jasrana is one of 5 assembly seats in Firozabad district. In 2022 the district’s seats were shared as follows: SP 3, BJP 2. In 2017 the tally was BJP 4, SP 1. The narrow result in Jasrana therefore sits within a district where more than one party won seats.
What it means for 2027
Seats decided by a few thousand votes or less are marginal seats, and parties usually treat them as priority constituencies. A small change in turnout, alliance arrangements or candidate choice can tip such a seat. With the next assembly election due by early 2027, Jasrana is likely to be watched closely by both the ruling alliance and the opposition. Any assessment of 2027, however, will depend on factors that the 2022 numbers alone cannot capture.
How the UP assembly is elected
Uttar Pradesh has 403 assembly constituencies, of which 84 are reserved for Scheduled Castes and 2 for Scheduled Tribes. Their boundaries were fixed by the Delimitation Order of 2008, and the 2012, 2017 and 2022 elections were all held on these same boundaries, so results from these years can be compared seat by seat. Members are elected under the first past the post system, which means the candidate with the most valid votes wins even without a majority of votes. The 18th Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly first met in 2022, so the next assembly election is due by early 2027.
All numbers in this article are taken from the official results published by the Election Commission of India. Vote shares are calculated on total valid votes, including NOTA where stated.
Also read:
- Moradabad Nagar Seat 2022: Decided by 782 Votes, an Analysis
- जसराना विधानसभा सीट 2027: 2017 में भाजपा, 2022 में सपा; समझिए समीकरण
- यूपी चुनाव 2022 के नतीजे: NDA को 273, सपा गठबंधन को 125 सीटें; आंकड़ों में पूरी तस्वीर
Source: Election Commission of India, statistical reports of the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly general elections 2017 and 2022. Original data: Election Commission of India statistical reports.
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