Katra Seat 2022: Decided by 357 Votes, an Analysis

Katra, in Shahjahanpur district, produced one of the tightest results of the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly election. Veer Vikram Singh of the BJP defeated Rajesh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party by just 357 votes. Ranked by margin, it was number 10 among the closest of all 403 seats. This analysis uses Election Commission of India figures to explain how the contest was decided and how it compares with 2017.

The 2022 result in Katra

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
1	Veer Vikram Singh	BJP	77,800	39.90%
2	Rajesh Yadav	Samajwadi Party	77,443	39.72%
3	Munna Singh	Congress	17,504	8.98%
4	Rajesh Kashyap	BSP	15,236	7.81%
–	NOTA	–	1,091	–

Table: UP Election News. Data: Election Commission of India.

Katra had 3,38,784 registered electors in 2022 and 1,94,967 votes were polled, a turnout of about 57.55%. A total of 11 candidates contested. The winning margin of 357 votes works out to about 0.18% of all votes polled.

Why the margin was so thin

The third placed Congress candidate Munna Singh polled 17,504 votes, more than the winning margin. In a contest this close, the votes taken by the third candidate could have changed the outcome had even a small share gone the other way. NOTA received 1,091 votes, more than the winning margin itself. The top two candidates together took 79.62% of the votes, which shows that other candidates still drew a meaningful share.

How 2017 compares

In 2017 the seat was won by Veer Vikram Singh Prince of the BJP, who defeated Rajesh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party by 16,730 votes. The same party therefore retained the seat in 2022, but with a much narrower cushion. Turnout was 61.47% in 2017 against 57.55% in 2022.

Year	Winner	Party	Runner up party	Margin
2017	Veer Vikram Singh Prince	BJP	SP	16,730
2022	Veer Vikram Singh	BJP	SP	357

The district context

Katra is one of 6 assembly seats in Shahjahanpur district. In 2022 the district’s seats were shared as follows: BJP 6. In 2017 the tally was BJP 5, SP 1. The narrow result in Katra therefore sits within a district where the same party dominated.

What it means for 2027

Seats decided by a few thousand votes or less are marginal seats, and parties usually treat them as priority constituencies. A small change in turnout, alliance arrangements or candidate choice can tip such a seat. With the next assembly election due by early 2027, Katra is likely to be watched closely by both the ruling alliance and the opposition. Any assessment of 2027, however, will depend on factors that the 2022 numbers alone cannot capture.

How the UP assembly is elected

Uttar Pradesh has 403 assembly constituencies, of which 84 are reserved for Scheduled Castes and 2 for Scheduled Tribes. Their boundaries were fixed by the Delimitation Order of 2008, and the 2012, 2017 and 2022 elections were all held on these same boundaries, so results from these years can be compared seat by seat. Members are elected under the first past the post system, which means the candidate with the most valid votes wins even without a majority of votes. The 18th Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly first met in 2022, so the next assembly election is due by early 2027.

All numbers in this article are taken from the official results published by the Election Commission of India. Vote shares are calculated on total valid votes, including NOTA where stated.

Also read:

• Baraut Seat 2022: Decided by 315 Votes, an Analysis
• कटरा विधानसभा सीट 2027: भाजपा की लगातार दो जीत, 2022 में 357 वोट से फैसला
• यूपी चुनाव 2022 के नतीजे: NDA को 273, सपा गठबंधन को 125 सीटें; आंकड़ों में पूरी तस्वीर

Source: Election Commission of India, statistical reports of the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly general elections 2017 and 2022. Original data: Election Commission of India statistical reports.

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