Kithore Seat 2022: Decided by 2,180 Votes, an Analysis

Kithore, in Meerut district, produced one of the tightest results of the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly election. Shahid Manzoor of the Samajwadi Party defeated Satyavir Tyagi of the BJP by just 2,180 votes. Ranked by margin, it was number 31 among the closest of all 403 seats. This analysis uses Election Commission of India figures to explain how the contest was decided and how it compares with 2017.

The 2022 result in Kithore

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
1	Shahid Manzoor	Samajwadi Party	1,07,104	42.19%
2	Satyavir Tyagi	BJP	1,04,924	41.33%
3	Kushal Pal Mavi	BSP	31,213	12.29%
4	Tasleem Ahmad	AIMIM	4,833	1.90%
–	NOTA	–	912	–

Table: UP Election News. Data: Election Commission of India.

Kithore had 3,65,516 registered electors in 2022 and 2,53,869 votes were polled, a turnout of about 69.45%. A total of 13 candidates contested. The winning margin of 2,180 votes works out to about 0.86% of all votes polled.

Why the margin was so thin

The third placed BSP candidate Kushal Pal Mavi polled 31,213 votes, more than the winning margin. In a contest this close, the votes taken by the third candidate could have changed the outcome had even a small share gone the other way. The top two candidates together took 83.52% of the votes, which shows that other candidates still drew a meaningful share.

How 2017 compares

In 2017 the seat was won by Satyavir Tyagi of the BJP, who defeated Shahid Manzoor of the Samajwadi Party by 10,822 votes. The seat therefore changed hands in 2022, moving from the BJP to the SP. Turnout was 71.70% in 2017 against 69.45% in 2022.

Year	Winner	Party	Runner up party	Margin
2017	Satyavir Tyagi	BJP	SP	10,822
2022	Shahid Manzoor	SP	BJP	2,180

The district context

Kithore is one of 7 assembly seats in Meerut district. In 2022 the district’s seats were shared as follows: SP 3, BJP 3, RLD 1. In 2017 the tally was BJP 6, SP 1. The narrow result in Kithore therefore sits within a district where more than one party won seats.

What it means for 2027

Seats decided by a few thousand votes or less are marginal seats, and parties usually treat them as priority constituencies. A small change in turnout, alliance arrangements or candidate choice can tip such a seat. With the next assembly election due by early 2027, Kithore is likely to be watched closely by both the ruling alliance and the opposition. Any assessment of 2027, however, will depend on factors that the 2022 numbers alone cannot capture.

How the UP assembly is elected

Uttar Pradesh has 403 assembly constituencies, of which 84 are reserved for Scheduled Castes and 2 for Scheduled Tribes. Their boundaries were fixed by the Delimitation Order of 2008, and the 2012, 2017 and 2022 elections were all held on these same boundaries, so results from these years can be compared seat by seat. Members are elected under the first past the post system, which means the candidate with the most valid votes wins even without a majority of votes. The 18th Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly first met in 2022, so the next assembly election is due by early 2027.

All numbers in this article are taken from the official results published by the Election Commission of India. Vote shares are calculated on total valid votes, including NOTA where stated.

Also read:

• Salon Seat 2022: Decided by 2,111 Votes, an Analysis
• किठौर विधानसभा सीट 2027: 2017 में भाजपा, 2022 में सपा; समझिए समीकरण
• यूपी चुनाव 2022 के नतीजे: NDA को 273, सपा गठबंधन को 125 सीटें; आंकड़ों में पूरी तस्वीर

Source: Election Commission of India, statistical reports of the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly general elections 2017 and 2022. Original data: Election Commission of India statistical reports.

और पढ़ें: आपके लिए चुनी गई ख़बरें → (प्रायोजित)