Nakur Seat 2022: Decided by 315 Votes, an Analysis

Nakur, in Saharanpur district, produced one of the tightest results of the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly election. Mukesh Choudhary of the BJP defeated Dr. Dharam Singh Saini of the Samajwadi Party by just 315 votes. Ranked by margin, it was number 8 among the closest of all 403 seats. This analysis uses Election Commission of India figures to explain how the contest was decided and how it compares with 2017.

The 2022 result in Nakur

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
1	Mukesh Choudhary	BJP	1,04,114	38.47%
2	Dr. Dharam Singh Saini	Samajwadi Party	1,03,799	38.35%
3	Sahil Khan	BSP	55,112	20.36%
4	Rizwana	AIMIM	3,593	1.33%
–	NOTA	–	710	–

Table: UP Election News. Data: Election Commission of India.

Nakur had 3,55,632 registered electors in 2022 and 2,70,652 votes were polled, a turnout of about 76.10%. A total of 11 candidates contested. The winning margin of 315 votes works out to about 0.12% of all votes polled.

Why the margin was so thin

The third placed BSP candidate Sahil Khan polled 55,112 votes, more than the winning margin. In a contest this close, the votes taken by the third candidate could have changed the outcome had even a small share gone the other way. NOTA received 710 votes, more than the winning margin itself. The top two candidates together took 76.82% of the votes, which shows that other candidates still drew a meaningful share.

How 2017 compares

In 2017 the seat was won by Dr.dharam Singh Saini of the BJP, who defeated Imran Masood of the Congress by 4,057 votes. The same party therefore retained the seat in 2022, but with a much narrower cushion. Turnout was 77.53% in 2017 against 76.10% in 2022.

Year	Winner	Party	Runner up party	Margin
2017	Dr.dharam Singh Saini	BJP	Congress	4,057
2022	Mukesh Choudhary	BJP	SP	315

The district context

Nakur is one of 7 assembly seats in Saharanpur district. In 2022 the district’s seats were shared as follows: BJP 5, SP 2. In 2017 the tally was BJP 4, Congress 2, SP 1. The narrow result in Nakur therefore sits within a district where more than one party won seats.

What it means for 2027

Seats decided by a few thousand votes or less are marginal seats, and parties usually treat them as priority constituencies. A small change in turnout, alliance arrangements or candidate choice can tip such a seat. With the next assembly election due by early 2027, Nakur is likely to be watched closely by both the ruling alliance and the opposition. Any assessment of 2027, however, will depend on factors that the 2022 numbers alone cannot capture.

How the UP assembly is elected

Uttar Pradesh has 403 assembly constituencies, of which 84 are reserved for Scheduled Castes and 2 for Scheduled Tribes. Their boundaries were fixed by the Delimitation Order of 2008, and the 2012, 2017 and 2022 elections were all held on these same boundaries, so results from these years can be compared seat by seat. Members are elected under the first past the post system, which means the candidate with the most valid votes wins even without a majority of votes. The 18th Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly first met in 2022, so the next assembly election is due by early 2027.

All numbers in this article are taken from the official results published by the Election Commission of India. Vote shares are calculated on total valid votes, including NOTA where stated.

Also read:

• Bilaspur Seat 2022: Decided by 307 Votes, an Analysis
• नकुड़ विधानसभा सीट 2027: भाजपा की लगातार दो जीत, 2022 में 315 वोट से फैसला
• यूपी चुनाव 2022 के नतीजे: NDA को 273, सपा गठबंधन को 125 सीटें; आंकड़ों में पूरी तस्वीर

Source: Election Commission of India, statistical reports of the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly general elections 2017 and 2022. Original data: Election Commission of India statistical reports.

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