Margin distribution in UP 2022: 15 seats decided by under 1,000 votes

Winning margins across the 403 seats in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh election varied widely. Fifteen seats were decided by fewer than 1,000 votes, while 51 were won by 50,000 or more. The largest groups, 114 seats each, fell in two bands: 10,000 to 24,999 and 25,000 to 49,999.

Winning margin (votes)	Seats
Under 1,000	15
1,000 to 1,999	14
2,000 to 4,999	24
5,000 to 9,999	71
10,000 to 24,999	114
25,000 to 49,999	114
50,000 or more	51

Table: UP Election News. Data: Election Commission of India.

The middle value

If all 403 seats are ranked by margin, the middle seat’s margin is about 19,684 votes. Half the seats were decided by less and half by more. Seats decided by fewer than 5,000 votes totalled 53, about 13 percent of the House.

The smallest margin was 203 votes in Dhampur in Bijnor district. The largest was 2,14,835 votes in Sahibabad in Ghaziabad district. The BJP won both.

What the distribution shows

The very wide margins are mostly in urban and NCR seats such as Sahibabad, Noida and Dadri. The very narrow ones are spread from Bijnor, Saharanpur and Baghpat in the west to Purvanchal in the east.

This spread shows that a small swing in the statewide vote can change results on close seats, while seats with large margins are less sensitive to such a swing. That is a general observation, not a forecast.

Key points

• Winning margins across the 403 seats in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh election varied widely.
• If all 403 seats are ranked by margin, the middle seat’s margin is about 19,684 votes.
• The very wide margins are mostly in urban and NCR seats such as Sahibabad, Noida and Dadri.

Official 2022 figures for context

For context, the 2022 assembly election had 15,12,46,168 electors and 9,21,62,897 votes polled, with statewide turnout of 60.94 percent. The BJP won 255 seats on 41.29 percent and the Samajwadi Party 111 seats on 32.06 percent. Apna Dal (S) won 12, the RLD 8, the SBSP and NISHAD Party 6 each, Congress and the Jansatta Dal Loktantrik 2 each, and the BSP 1.

The 2017 baseline

The 2017 assembly election had 14,16,63,646 electors and turnout of 61.22 percent. The BJP won 312 seats on 39.67 percent. The Samajwadi Party won 47, the BSP 19, Apna Dal (S) 9, Congress 7 and the SBSP 4. Three independents also won. Between 2017 and 2022, 125 seats changed parties.

The 2024 Lok Sabha context

In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, Uttar Pradesh’s 80 seats were won as follows: Samajwadi Party 37, BJP 33, Congress 6, RLD 2, Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) 1 and Apna Dal (S) 1. Lok Sabha and assembly elections turn on different issues and alliances, so the two results should not be added together to reach a conclusion.

The structure of the House

The Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly has 403 seats. Of these, 84 are reserved for Scheduled Castes and 2 for Scheduled Tribes. The majority mark is 202. The state sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha and 31 to the Rajya Sabha. The legislative council is a separate House whose members come through different electorates and nomination.

Also read:

• Ghazipur district assembly results 2022
• Uttar Pradesh Lok Sabha 2024 result
• Meerut district assembly results 2022

Source: Election Commission of India. Figures are from official statistical reports.

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