Ram Nagar Seat 2022: Decided by 261 Votes, an Analysis

Ram Nagar, in Barabanki district, produced one of the tightest results of the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly election. Fareed Mahfooz Kidwai of the Samajwadi Party defeated Sharad Kumar Awasthi of the BJP by just 261 votes. Ranked by margin, it was number 5 among the closest of all 403 seats. This analysis uses Election Commission of India figures to explain how the contest was decided and how it compares with 2017.

The 2022 result in Ram Nagar

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
1	Fareed Mahfooz Kidwai	Samajwadi Party	98,799	41.96%
2	Sharad Kumar Awasthi	BJP	98,538	41.85%
3	Ram Kishor	BSP	23,259	9.88%
4	Arun Kumar	AIMIM	4,940	2.10%
–	NOTA	–	1,822	–

Table: UP Election News. Data: Election Commission of India.

Ram Nagar had 3,38,326 registered electors in 2022 and 2,35,461 votes were polled, a turnout of about 69.60%. A total of 11 candidates contested. The winning margin of 261 votes works out to about 0.11% of all votes polled.

Why the margin was so thin

The third placed BSP candidate Ram Kishor polled 23,259 votes, more than the winning margin. In a contest this close, the votes taken by the third candidate could have changed the outcome had even a small share gone the other way. NOTA received 1,822 votes, more than the winning margin itself. The top two candidates together took 83.81% of the votes, which shows that other candidates still drew a meaningful share.

How 2017 compares

In 2017 the seat was won by Sharad Kumar Awasthi of the BJP, who defeated Arvinda Kumar Singh of the Samajwadi Party by 22,727 votes. The seat therefore changed hands in 2022, moving from the BJP to the SP. Turnout was 68.39% in 2017 against 69.60% in 2022.

Year	Winner	Party	Runner up party	Margin
2017	Sharad Kumar Awasthi	BJP	SP	22,727
2022	Fareed Mahfooz Kidwai	SP	BJP	261

The district context

Ram Nagar is one of 6 assembly seats in Barabanki district. In 2022 the district’s seats were shared as follows: BJP 3, SP 3. In 2017 the tally was BJP 5, SP 1. The narrow result in Ram Nagar therefore sits within a district where more than one party won seats.

What it means for 2027

Seats decided by a few thousand votes or less are marginal seats, and parties usually treat them as priority constituencies. A small change in turnout, alliance arrangements or candidate choice can tip such a seat. With the next assembly election due by early 2027, Ram Nagar is likely to be watched closely by both the ruling alliance and the opposition. Any assessment of 2027, however, will depend on factors that the 2022 numbers alone cannot capture.

How the UP assembly is elected

Uttar Pradesh has 403 assembly constituencies, of which 84 are reserved for Scheduled Castes and 2 for Scheduled Tribes. Their boundaries were fixed by the Delimitation Order of 2008, and the 2012, 2017 and 2022 elections were all held on these same boundaries, so results from these years can be compared seat by seat. Members are elected under the first past the post system, which means the candidate with the most valid votes wins even without a majority of votes. The 18th Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly first met in 2022, so the next assembly election is due by early 2027.

All numbers in this article are taken from the official results published by the Election Commission of India. Vote shares are calculated on total valid votes, including NOTA where stated.

Also read:

• Nehtaur Seat 2022: Decided by 258 Votes, an Analysis
• यूपी चुनाव 2022 के नतीजे: NDA को 273, सपा गठबंधन को 125 सीटें; आंकड़ों में पूरी तस्वीर
• यूपी चुनाव 2017 के नतीजे: भाजपा को 312 सीटें, बसपा ने सपा से ज्यादा वोट पाकर भी जीतीं सिर्फ 19

Source: Election Commission of India, statistical reports of the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly general elections 2017 and 2022. Original data: Election Commission of India statistical reports.

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