Bilaspur Seat 2022: Decided by 307 Votes, an Analysis

Bilaspur, in Rampur district, produced one of the tightest results of the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly election. Baldev Singh Aulakh of the BJP defeated Amarjeet Singh of the Samajwadi Party by just 307 votes. Ranked by margin, it was number 7 among the closest of all 403 seats. This analysis uses Election Commission of India figures to explain how the contest was decided and how it compares with 2017.

The 2022 result in Bilaspur

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
1	Baldev Singh Aulakh	BJP	1,01,998	43.17%
2	Amarjeet Singh	Samajwadi Party	1,01,691	43.04%
3	Ramautar Kashyap	BSP	18,870	7.99%
4	Sanjay Kapoor	Congress	9,814	4.15%
–	NOTA	–	1,197	–

Table: UP Election News. Data: Election Commission of India.

Bilaspur had 3,45,202 registered electors in 2022 and 2,36,259 votes were polled, a turnout of about 68.44%. A total of 10 candidates contested. The winning margin of 307 votes works out to about 0.13% of all votes polled.

Why the margin was so thin

The third placed BSP candidate Ramautar Kashyap polled 18,870 votes, more than the winning margin. In a contest this close, the votes taken by the third candidate could have changed the outcome had even a small share gone the other way. NOTA received 1,197 votes, more than the winning margin itself. The top two candidates together took 86.21% of the votes, which shows a near straight fight.

How 2017 compares

In 2017 the seat was won by Baldev Singh Aulakh of the BJP, who defeated Sanjay Kapoor of the Congress by 22,359 votes. The same party therefore retained the seat in 2022, but with a much narrower cushion. Turnout was 67.45% in 2017 against 68.44% in 2022.

Year	Winner	Party	Runner up party	Margin
2017	Baldev Singh Aulakh	BJP	Congress	22,359
2022	Baldev Singh Aulakh	BJP	SP	307

The district context

Bilaspur is one of 5 assembly seats in Rampur district. In 2022 the district’s seats were shared as follows: SP 3, BJP 2. In 2017 the tally was SP 3, BJP 2. The narrow result in Bilaspur therefore sits within a district where more than one party won seats.

What it means for 2027

Seats decided by a few thousand votes or less are marginal seats, and parties usually treat them as priority constituencies. A small change in turnout, alliance arrangements or candidate choice can tip such a seat. With the next assembly election due by early 2027, Bilaspur is likely to be watched closely by both the ruling alliance and the opposition. Any assessment of 2027, however, will depend on factors that the 2022 numbers alone cannot capture.

How the UP assembly is elected

Uttar Pradesh has 403 assembly constituencies, of which 84 are reserved for Scheduled Castes and 2 for Scheduled Tribes. Their boundaries were fixed by the Delimitation Order of 2008, and the 2012, 2017 and 2022 elections were all held on these same boundaries, so results from these years can be compared seat by seat. Members are elected under the first past the post system, which means the candidate with the most valid votes wins even without a majority of votes. The 18th Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly first met in 2022, so the next assembly election is due by early 2027.

All numbers in this article are taken from the official results published by the Election Commission of India. Vote shares are calculated on total valid votes, including NOTA where stated.

Also read:

• Isauli Seat 2022: Decided by 269 Votes, an Analysis
• बिलासपुर विधानसभा सीट 2027: भाजपा की लगातार दो जीत, 2022 में 307 वोट से फैसला
• यूपी चुनाव 2022 के नतीजे: NDA को 273, सपा गठबंधन को 125 सीटें; आंकड़ों में पूरी तस्वीर

Source: Election Commission of India, statistical reports of the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly general elections 2017 and 2022. Original data: Election Commission of India statistical reports.

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