Shahganj Seat 2022: Decided by 719 Votes, an Analysis

Shahganj, in Jaunpur district, produced one of the tightest results of the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly election. Ramesh of the NISHAD Party defeated Shailendra Yadav Lalai of the Samajwadi Party by just 719 votes. Ranked by margin, it was number 12 among the closest of all 403 seats. This analysis uses Election Commission of India figures to explain how the contest was decided and how it compares with 2017.

The 2022 result in Shahganj

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
1	Ramesh	NISHAD Party	87,233	36.21%
2	Shailendra Yadav Lalai	Samajwadi Party	86,514	35.91%
3	Indar Dev	BSP	48,957	20.32%
4	Nayab Ahmad Khan	AIMIM	8,128	3.37%
–	NOTA	–	1,643	–

Table: UP Election News. Data: Election Commission of India.

Shahganj had 4,07,439 registered electors in 2022 and 2,40,920 votes were polled, a turnout of about 59.13%. A total of 13 candidates contested. The winning margin of 719 votes works out to about 0.30% of all votes polled.

Why the margin was so thin

The third placed BSP candidate Indar Dev polled 48,957 votes, more than the winning margin. In a contest this close, the votes taken by the third candidate could have changed the outcome had even a small share gone the other way. NOTA received 1,643 votes, more than the winning margin itself. The top two candidates together took 72.12% of the votes, which shows that other candidates still drew a meaningful share.

How 2017 compares

In 2017 the seat was won by Shailendra Yadav Lalai of the Samajwadi Party, who defeated Rana Ajeet Pratap Singh of the SBSP by 9,162 votes. The seat therefore changed hands in 2022, moving from the SP to the NISHAD Party. Turnout was 60.95% in 2017 against 59.13% in 2022.

Year	Winner	Party	Runner up party	Margin
2017	Shailendra Yadav Lalai	SP	SBSP	9,162
2022	Ramesh	NISHAD Party	SP	719

The district context

Shahganj is one of 9 assembly seats in Jaunpur district. In 2022 the district’s seats were shared as follows: SP 4, BJP 2, NISHAD Party 1, Apna Dal (S) 1, SBSP 1. In 2017 the tally was BJP 4, SP 3, BSP 1, Apna Dal (S) 1. The narrow result in Shahganj therefore sits within a district where more than one party won seats.

What it means for 2027

Seats decided by a few thousand votes or less are marginal seats, and parties usually treat them as priority constituencies. A small change in turnout, alliance arrangements or candidate choice can tip such a seat. With the next assembly election due by early 2027, Shahganj is likely to be watched closely by both the ruling alliance and the opposition. Any assessment of 2027, however, will depend on factors that the 2022 numbers alone cannot capture.

How the UP assembly is elected

Uttar Pradesh has 403 assembly constituencies, of which 84 are reserved for Scheduled Castes and 2 for Scheduled Tribes. Their boundaries were fixed by the Delimitation Order of 2008, and the 2012, 2017 and 2022 elections were all held on these same boundaries, so results from these years can be compared seat by seat. Members are elected under the first past the post system, which means the candidate with the most valid votes wins even without a majority of votes. The 18th Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly first met in 2022, so the next assembly election is due by early 2027.

All numbers in this article are taken from the official results published by the Election Commission of India. Vote shares are calculated on total valid votes, including NOTA where stated.

Also read:

• Dibiyapur Seat 2022: Decided by 473 Votes, an Analysis
• यूपी चुनाव 2022 के नतीजे: NDA को 273, सपा गठबंधन को 125 सीटें; आंकड़ों में पूरी तस्वीर
• यूपी चुनाव 2017 के नतीजे: भाजपा को 312 सीटें, बसपा ने सपा से ज्यादा वोट पाकर भी जीतीं सिर्फ 19

Source: Election Commission of India, statistical reports of the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly general elections 2017 and 2022. Original data: Election Commission of India statistical reports.

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