Phulpur Seat 2022: Decided by 2,732 Votes, an Analysis

Phulpur, in Prayagraj district, produced one of the tightest results of the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly election. Praveen Patel of the BJP defeated Mohd.Mujataba Siddiqui of the Samajwadi Party by just 2,732 votes. Ranked by margin, it was number 33 among the closest of all 403 seats. This analysis uses Election Commission of India figures to explain how the contest was decided and how it compares with 2017.

The 2022 result in Phulpur

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
1	Praveen Patel	BJP	1,03,557	42.00%
2	Mohd.Mujataba Siddiqui	Samajwadi Party	1,00,825	40.89%
3	Ram Taulan Yadav	BSP	33,036	13.40%
4	Siddhanath Maurya	Congress	1,626	0.66%
–	NOTA	–	1,548	–

Table: UP Election News. Data: Election Commission of India.

Phulpur had 4,08,793 registered electors in 2022 and 2,46,588 votes were polled, a turnout of about 60.32%. A total of 15 candidates contested. The winning margin of 2,732 votes works out to about 1.11% of all votes polled.

Why the margin was so thin

The third placed BSP candidate Ram Taulan Yadav polled 33,036 votes, more than the winning margin. In a contest this close, the votes taken by the third candidate could have changed the outcome had even a small share gone the other way. The top two candidates together took 82.89% of the votes, which shows that other candidates still drew a meaningful share.

How 2017 compares

In 2017 the seat was won by Praveen Patel of the BJP, who defeated Mansoor Alam of the Samajwadi Party by 26,613 votes. The same party therefore retained the seat in 2022, but with a much narrower cushion. Turnout was 58.80% in 2017 against 60.32% in 2022.

Year	Winner	Party	Runner up party	Margin
2017	Praveen Patel	BJP	SP	26,613
2022	Praveen Patel	BJP	SP	2,732

The district context

Phulpur is one of 12 assembly seats in Prayagraj district. In 2022 the district’s seats were shared as follows: BJP 7, SP 4, Apna Dal (S) 1. In 2017 the tally was BJP 8, BSP 2, Apna Dal (S) 1, SP 1. The narrow result in Phulpur therefore sits within a district where more than one party won seats.

What it means for 2027

Seats decided by a few thousand votes or less are marginal seats, and parties usually treat them as priority constituencies. A small change in turnout, alliance arrangements or candidate choice can tip such a seat. With the next assembly election due by early 2027, Phulpur is likely to be watched closely by both the ruling alliance and the opposition. Any assessment of 2027, however, will depend on factors that the 2022 numbers alone cannot capture.

How the UP assembly is elected

Uttar Pradesh has 403 assembly constituencies, of which 84 are reserved for Scheduled Castes and 2 for Scheduled Tribes. Their boundaries were fixed by the Delimitation Order of 2008, and the 2012, 2017 and 2022 elections were all held on these same boundaries, so results from these years can be compared seat by seat. Members are elected under the first past the post system, which means the candidate with the most valid votes wins even without a majority of votes. The 18th Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly first met in 2022, so the next assembly election is due by early 2027.

All numbers in this article are taken from the official results published by the Election Commission of India. Vote shares are calculated on total valid votes, including NOTA where stated.

Also read:

• Raniganj Seat 2022: Decided by 2,649 Votes, an Analysis
• यूपी चुनाव 2022 के नतीजे: NDA को 273, सपा गठबंधन को 125 सीटें; आंकड़ों में पूरी तस्वीर
• यूपी चुनाव 2017 के नतीजे: भाजपा को 312 सीटें, बसपा ने सपा से ज्यादा वोट पाकर भी जीतीं सिर्फ 19

Source: Election Commission of India, statistical reports of the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly general elections 2017 and 2022. Original data: Election Commission of India statistical reports.

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